Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.083866 0.093516 0.103450 0.114412 0.126144 0.138298 0.151814
2025-01-12 0.067230 0.081555 0.097116 0.115150 0.135353 0.157167 0.182382
2025-01-19 0.054866 0.072008 0.091566 0.115222 0.142752 0.173491 0.210110
2025-01-26 0.050108 0.070146 0.093922 0.123644 0.159235 0.199949 0.249500
2025-02-02 0.043281 0.064721 0.091185 0.125339 0.167354 0.216504 0.277487
2025-02-09 0.038261 0.060827 0.089697 0.128022 0.176271 0.233787 0.306299
2025-02-16 0.032962 0.055858 0.086241 0.127719 0.181124 0.245938 0.328881
2025-02-23 0.031129 0.055380 0.088456 0.134541 0.194838 0.268946 0.364774
2025-03-02 0.029092 0.054332 0.089697 0.139950 0.206706 0.289727 0.398119
2025-03-09 0.024920 0.049616 0.085447 0.137644 0.208303 0.297457 0.415222
2025-03-16 0.020964 0.044741 0.080542 0.134049 0.207881 0.302390 0.428672
2025-03-23 0.019523 0.043747 0.081163 0.138058 0.217563 0.320296 0.458590
2025-03-30 0.017790 0.042201 0.081029 0.141230 0.226544 0.337930 0.489090
2025-04-06 0.015944 0.040260 0.080175 0.143341 0.234168 0.354012 0.517993
2025-04-13 0.013984 0.037845 0.078383 0.143944 0.239657 0.367334 0.543512
2025-04-20 0.014040 0.039269 0.082821 0.153960 0.258532 0.398713 0.592871
2025-04-27 0.012625 0.037609 0.082061 0.156023 0.266125 0.415044 0.622713
2025-05-04 0.011543 0.036468 0.082056 0.159177 0.275268 0.433523 0.655521
2025-05-11 0.010035 0.034183 0.079906 0.158841 0.279279 0.445007 0.679132
2025-05-18 0.009870 0.034857 0.082949 0.166759 0.295428 0.473240 0.725237
2025-05-25 0.009483 0.034962 0.084950 0.173021 0.309197 0.498306 0.767291
2025-06-01 0.008000 0.032203 0.081545 0.170354 0.309583 0.504756 0.784304
2025-06-08 0.006542 0.029177 0.077373 0.166193 0.307538 0.507686 0.796491